Winter is shaping up to be a wild one, thanks to a super El Niño event that’s nearly record-strong. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) just dropped its official winter outlook, and it’s packed with strong storms heading for the West Coast and the southern half of the country. This El Niño, with its warm Pacific waters, is set to peak in December but will leave its mark all winter long across the Lower 48.
Expect much of the US to be milder and wetter than usual, though that doesn’t necessarily mean less snow everywhere. With the El Niño’s intensity and record-warm oceans globally, any winter storms could bring serious rain and heavy mountain snow. Warmer waters mean more evaporation, and warmer air holds more moisture, giving storms an extra boost when they hit land.
Typically, El Niño steers the jet stream south, bringing more storms and wet, cooler weather to the southern states while the north stays drier and milder. That could mean less snow for the Northeast, but NOAA warns some storms might swing up the East Coast, potentially dumping rain or snow on big cities from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast if cold air is available. “These storms could be very strong,” says NOAA meteorologist Jon Gottschalck.
The West Coast, especially California, is in for a rough time. Models show far above-average precipitation, and Governor Gavin Newsom already declared a state of emergency, citing risks of inland flooding, high winds, heavy mountain snow, and coastal flooding from big waves. History shows strong El Niños can be brutal there—think the 1997-98 event that caused widespread flooding and mudslides.
While El Niño is the main player, other factors like the polar vortex will tweak things, especially up north. And with our warming climate, winters are heating up fast—Climate Central notes it’s the fastest-warming season for most of the US. Snowfall has dropped in two-thirds of the country since 1970, so this winter might not be a classic snow season everywhere. Only time will tell, but El Niño and climate change are teaming up to make this winter unpredictable.
