Texas Governor Race 2026: Abbott vs. Hinojosa — MultiState Elections – USFTB

Texas has not elected a Democratic governor since 1990, and Gov. Greg Abbott (R) is still favored for a fourth term, but the race has tightened. The Cook Political Report moved it to Lean Republican on October 1, matching Sabato’s Crystal Ball; Pluribus News still rates it Solid Republican, which keeps the consensus of the three ratings at Likely Republican. Gina Hinojosa (D), a state representative from Austin, has built her campaign around affordability. Abbott is answering on the same ground with what he calls the “Abbott Affordability Agenda” on property taxes and everyday costs, backed by a $12 million ad buy attacking her property-tax votes; Hinojosa says she has “never, not once” voted to raise property taxes. Abbott says Hinojosa’s positions are “antagonistic to Texas” and that voters react negatively once they learn about her. The money gap is wide but shrinking: Abbott outspent Hinojosa 6-to-1 from July to late September, spending $74.1 million to her $12.1 million, and ended the period with $18.2 million on hand, down from a $105.7 million war chest at the start of the year, to her $4 million. His narrow polling lead barely moved over that stretch. Hinojosa accepted four TV debate invitations, but Abbott has not agreed to debate, although he debated in all three of his earlier governor’s races; when Hinojosa staged a debate at the Governor’s Mansion on October 15, Abbott was campaigning in East Texas. Pat Dixon (L) is also on the ballot.