September can feel like a golden mirage, but the real truth starts hitting in Week 5. With eight of the top twelve ranked teams hitting the road this weekend, the college football landscape is primed for some major shakeups. According to SP+ metrics, there is a nearly 24% chance that three major favorites fall, while the odds of all eight staying perfect sit at a chilly 11.9%. Grab your popcorn, because the upset alerts are ringing.
We start in the SEC, where the clash of the future stars takes center stage. No. 7 Alabama heads to No. 16 Mississippi State, featuring a quarterback shootout for the ages. Kamario Taylor, the reigning September Heisman winner, faces the electric Keelon Russell. While MSU has flown under the radar at 4-0, the Crimson Tide’s offense—averaging nearly 49 points a game—is a monster. Can the Bulldogs’ prolific attack keep up, or will the tide roll? Bama sits as a 5.5-point favorite, but this one has trap written all over it.
Then there is the trip to Iowa City. Ohio State hasn’t set foot in Kinnick Stadium since that unforgettable 55-24 nightmare in 2017. The Buckeyes are rolling with Jeremiah Smith leading the charge, but Iowa just pulled off a miraculous win over Michigan. If the Hawkeyes can bottle up the run game and force Ohio State into tough spots, they might just pull off the double—beating both Michigan and the Buckeyes in quick succession. The Buckeyes are 14.5-point favorites, but history has a way of repeating itself in Iowa City.
Elsewhere on the road, Florida heads to Missouri with the nation’s top offense looking to stay perfect, while BYU takes on a struggling TCU squad that has committed too many turnovers. Miami faces a tough Clemson defense in rainy conditions, and Notre Dame’s high-powered offense tests a disjointed North Carolina team. Indiana looks to keep rolling against a suddenly alive Rutgers offense, and Friday night brings a battle of unbeatens as Pitt travels to Virginia Tech. Don’t forget the Group of Six chaos, where UMass hosts its biggest home game in years, looking to stay perfect against Eastern Michigan.
The spreads are big, the roads are tough, and the path to the playoff just got a whole lot bumpier. Let’s break down the games that will define the weekend.
