Airfares are way up compared to last year. Don’t expect it to change this holiday season

Think you paid a lot to fly this summer? Don’t expect it to get any better this holiday season, or even next year.

The major US airlines reported that fares rose sharply during the July to September period, a result of higher fuel costs and steady demand. US airfares jumped about 25% this summer compared to 2025, according to data from the Consumer Price Index.

And airlines executives expect the trend of higher fares to continue for the foreseeable future.

“I certainly think pricing is going to stay,” United CEO Scott Kirby said on the company earnings call Wednesday, noting there’s a good chance that fares will rise even higher than expected next year.

That’s likely why passengers are booking holiday travel earlier this year than in the past, said Hayley Berg, lead economist at travel site Hopper. But that’s only helping push ticket prices even higher.

Thanksgiving is already averaging $389 a ticket, up 39% compared to this time last year, she told CNN. Tickets for the period around Christmas, which are typically about $50 more expensive than Thanksgiving, are $452 on average, up 22% from a year ago.

The airlines blame the increase on higher fuel costs. Fuel is one of the largest expenses for airlines, and jet fuel costs in the third quarter jumped more than 60% compared to a year ago, thanks to the war in Iran. With no end to the conflict in sight, Kirby said United assumes fuel will stay pricey through all of 2027.

The four largest airlines – United, Delta, American and Southwest — spent $6.3 billion more on fuel in the third quarter than in 2025, or $69 million more a day. Higher fares and fees, including baggage, haven’t yet offset added fuel costs, but airlines expect they will.

Airlines have also cut their cheaper flights — midweek and Saturday flights, or those in the early morning and late at night. Those flights are popular with bargain hunters but can be money losers for airlines amid a spike in fuel prices.

But it is not just fuel and fewer affordable flights causing higher fares. Some of the fault lies in the customers’ willingness to pay those fares.

Passengers are still packing planes, and strong future bookings have convinced airlines they can keep fares high even if fuel costs drop.

Delta CEO Ed Bastian told investors earlier this month that while fuel costs were the impetus for hiking ticket prices and baggage fees, because travelers have accepted the higher fares, he believes they are “sustainable” even if fuel prices drop.

And airlines do whatever they can to bring in the greatest possible revenue, according to Zach Griff, author of airline newsletter “From the Tray Table.”

“Even one day when the fuel prices drop back to what they used to be, you’re not going to see the airlines just drop their fares because of that,” he said.

Airlines also note that airfares are still relatively cheap when controlled for inflation — for example, when compared to 2019 before the pandemic killed demand for travel and slashed fares.

But while adjusting for inflation is popular with economists and airline executives, that means little to the average airline passenger.

“That’s not how most folks make that comparison. They feel poorer after they pay the credit card bill that includes a ticket from Delta Air Lines,” Griff said.