We’ve taken a deep dive into the upcoming tennis clash between Daniil Medvedev and Francisco Cerundolo at the ATP China Open 2026. After careful analysis, we believe Medvedev has a solid edge, with about a 68% chance of taking the match. He’s also looking strong for the first set, with a 65% probability on our side.
When it comes to the betting odds, things are interesting. The moneyline has Cerundolo at +218 and Medvedev at -250, which means Medvedev is the favorite, but Cerundolo could be a smart play for value. For the first set, Medvedev is at -200, while Cerundolo is at +162. Our picks lean towards Cerundolo for both the moneyline at +218 via DraftKings and the first set at -102 via DraftKings, as he offers better odds despite being the underdog.
The game spread is set at +3.5, and we see it as a fair call with both players having an equal shot at covering. The total games under 22.5 has a slight edge at 53% chance of hitting.
The match is scheduled for Sunday, October 4, 2026, at 4:30 AM ET, in the quarterfinals of the ATP Beijing tournament. All times are in Eastern Time.
In short, while Medvedev is likely to win, Cerundolo presents the best betting value. Remember to bet responsibly and check out our responsible gambling hub for tips.
