El Niño Smashes Sea Temperature Records Early, Signaling Major Weather Shifts Ahead

The most widespread impacts of this El Niño are expected later this year and into 2027, but its influence is already being felt across the globe. The strength of an El Niño doesn’t always dictate how severe the effects will be in any one place, as regional impacts can vary widely. However, some common patterns are emerging when we look at past super El Niños. For instance, during the 1997-98 event, severe drought in southeast Asia led to massive peat and forest fires, while East Africa faced devastating floods. That year also helped make 1998 the warmest on record at the time. A similar pattern occurred in 2015-16, with drought and wildfires returning to southeast Asia, and southern Africa experiencing one of its worst droughts in decades, causing a major humanitarian crisis. Another recurring signal is tropical cyclone activity; strong El Niño events tend to suppress Atlantic hurricanes while boosting activity in parts of the Pacific—a pattern that’s already being seen in 2026. The World Meteorological Organisation reports that drought and flood-related disruptions are already happening in several regions, with growing concerns for food security in East Africa and the Asia-Pacific. Forecasts from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration suggest El Niño will likely peak in December. Dr. Hausfather described the latest projections as ‘astonishing’ and likely to set new records ‘by a remarkable amount.’