An October nor’easter is developing in the Atlantic, where it will bring high surf, rip currents, coastal flooding and winds to parts of the East Coast for several days this week.
The National Hurricane Center has highlighted it as an area to watch this week for the potential development of Josephine.
However, regardless of whether we call this system a nor’easter or Josephine, the impacts will be the same. The bottom line: This system will bring dangerous conditions to the East Coast for multiple days this week.
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(MORE: What is a nor’easter?)
Impacts
While we do not expect this storm to be as strong as the late September nor’easter, there will still be some impacts. They are broken down below:
Coastal flooding
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The area most likely to be impacted the longest appears to stretch from the Delmarva Peninsula to eastern North Carolina.
Coastal flood alerts are in effect for parts of coastal North Carolina, where anywhere from 1 to 4 feet of inundation is possible. High surf advisories are also in place across the North Carolina coastline, with waves potentially reaching up to 14 feet.
Across parts of the coastlines of Virginia, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey, inundation up to a foot and large waves to 12 feet are possible.
Water levels across river gauges from North Carolina to Maryland could rise to moderate flood stage.
High surf, coastal flooding and rip currents are expected to stretch as far south as Florida’s Atlantic beaches and as far north as New England’s coastline. Expect significant beach erosion across the East Coast this week.
Winds and rain
The Outer Banks will again see the worst impacts in terms of winds and rain. Wind advisories are in place, calling for winds to gust up to 40 mph. These winds could knock out power lines and bring travel delays.
This storm shouldn’t be a huge rainmaker; most of the heavy rain is forecast to stay offshore. However, there could be some off-and-on showers throughout the week, mainly for coastal areas.
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Where will it go?
Models are still having a hard time with the exact track of the nor’easter.
The American model shows the low just meandering off the North Carolina coast through midweek, then heading out to sea by the end of the week. This would keep the majority of the coastal erosion and wind impacts primarily for North Carolina and Virginia.
However, the European model seems to keep the nor’easter a little further offshore, and moving it along the coast faster than the American model. This would mean impacts would be felt along the North Carolina coast for a shorter duration.
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What you should do
- For now, just keep in mind that the weather for the next few days, particularly from North Carolina to the Delmarva Peninsula, may be windy and, in some areas, there could be rain and coastal flooding at high tide.
- Obey any red flags warning of rip current danger at the beach. If in doubt, stay out of the surf zone if breaking waves look impressive.
- Check back with us at weather.com and The Weather Channel app in the days ahead as this forecast comes into focus.
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X and Facebook.
