A new poll shows that Democrat Josh Turek is winning over people who voted for President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election in the race to be Iowa‘s next U.S. senator.
The Hawkeye State is among this year’s most competitive Senate races, as Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson vie for the open seat left by retiring Republican Senator Joni Ernst. Polls continue pointing to a tight race between the two candidates after their first debate last week, where tariffs, immigration and voting records played a major role. Both candidates have also exchanged verbal blows regarding the state’s economy and the best path forward as Iowans express concerns about inflation and surging fuel costs. The new poll from YouGov comes after Turek and Hinson faced off in a second debate on Tuesday night.
Josh Turek vs. Ashley Hinson: What Latest Polls Show After Debate
In the YouGov poll, which surveyed 2,245 likely Iowa voters from October 6 to October 12, Turek led Hinson 47 percent to 46 percent, with 4 percent of voters still undecided. And not only did Turek lead in the most recent poll between the two candidates, it also appears he is winning over Iowans who previously voted for Trump. According to the poll, 41 percent of respondents backed former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024, compared with 52 percent who voted for Trump. Given Turek’s current edge, the results suggest he has won support from at least some voters who previously cast ballots for Trump. The margin of error was 3.1 percent.
Turek’s lead over Hinson is narrower in the YouGov poll than in other recent surveys. A poll by Suffolk University conducted from October 1 to October 4 gave him a 4-point lead over Hinson, 48 percent to 44 percent. Turek had a 2-point lead over Hinson in several other recent polls, including a Beacon Research analysis from September 24 to September 28 that favored him over Hinson at 49 percent to 47 percent. An InsiderAdvantage poll held on September 22 and September 23 gave Turek a 1-point lead over Hinson at 47 percent to 46 percent, whereas a Marist University poll taken from September 17 to September 20 gave Turek a heftier 8-point lead over Hinson, 50 percent to 42 percent.
Several polls have also shown Hinson ahead. A recent one by Emerson College on October 5 and October 6 favored Hinson for the race at 47 percent to Turek’s 45 percent. A CNN poll conducted from September 29 to October 5 also gave Hinson a 2-point lead, at 45 percent to Turek’s 43 percent. Hinson carried the same 2-point leads over Turek in two Quantus Insights polls on September 28 and September 29, and a 1-point lead in a New York Times/Siena University poll taken from September 22 to October 1.
Newsweek reached out to the campaigns for Turek and Hinson by email on Wednesday.
Since the second debate between the two candidates was held on Tuesday night, it did not influence the outcome of the YouGov poll.
The poll also allowed some insight into Trump’s approval in Iowa, with the majority disapproving of the president’s performance. When asked if they approved of Trump’s work as president so far, 29 percent said they strongly approved, while 17 percent said somewhat approved. Five percent said they somewhat disapproved, while 49 percent said they strongly disapproved. One percent said they were unsure.
What Prediction Markets Show
Prediction markets show a less tight race. Both Polymarket and Kalshi show Hinson with a generous lead over Turek.
On Polymarket, Hinson is favored to win the Senate race at 57 percent to Turek’s 42 percent. She has a slightly greater lead on Kalshi, where she is favored to win at 58 percent to Turek’s 42 percent.
Why the Iowa Senate Race Matters in the 2026 Midterms
This year’s midterm elections could flip control of the House and Senate as Republican candidates work to overcome widespread American concerns tied to the economy, inflation, rising fuel costs and the Iran war. Although Iowa has voted Republican in the Senate elections since 2008, the state has also had a history of voting for presidential candidates from both political parties, making the current political environment a competitive one. Trump won Iowa the last three election cycles, but before that, former President Barack Obama won the state twice.
The recent poll delivered encouraging news for Turek’s campaign, considering the last time Democrats won an Iowa Senate election was 18 years ago, when incumbent Senator Tom Harkin defeated his Republican opponent, Christopher Reed. In the elections since, Ernst and Republican Chuck Grassley have held control of Iowa’s two Senate seats.
What Happens Next
Early voting in Iowa began Tuesday and will continue through November 2. The midterm elections take place on November 3.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Edward T. Cummins
