Republicans’ troubles this cycle are particularly pronounced in Midwestern red states, where voters are frustrated by both the federal and state governments’ handling of economic issues. Half of our latest House ratings changes, all of which are shifting toward Democrats, are in Ohio, Nebraska and Kansas — three states that, for the same reasons, also have competitive Senate races.
Across the country, scores of districts that President Donald Trump won by 10 or more points are now firmly in play. Five districts, four of which Trump won by double digits, are shifting from Likely to Lean Republican. Montana’s 1st District, which Trump carried by 12 points in 2024, is moving into the Toss Up column. These races are now seeing heavy outside investment from House Majority PAC, the Congressional Leadership Fund and MAGA Inc.’s super PACs, a sign that both sides view these contests as competitive.
Another trend we’re noticing is that seats that voted for President Barack Obama, but have swung toward Republicans in the past decade, look much more competitive than they have in recent years. That includes
