Key Stats for AST SpaceMobile Stock
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Price change for AST SpaceMobile stock in last 6 months: -48%
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$ASTS Stock Price as of Oct. 12: $51
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52-Week High: $134
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$ASTS Stock Price Target: $78
What Happened?
Deutsche Bank upgraded AST SpaceMobile (ASTS:NASDAQ) from Hold to Buy on Monday. It kept its $93 price target, which is about 82% above Friday’s close of $50.97.
Analyst Bryan Kraft says AST SpaceMobile stock is down about 65% from its May high when Deutsche Bank had downgraded the stock.
The New Glenn launchpad explosion had delayed AST’s launch plans, and valuation was a concern. Kraft now thinks the pullback makes this a good time to get more positive.
His main argument is about spectrum, and Deutsche Bank estimates spectrum accounts for all but $10 per share of AST’s enterprise value.
In simple terms, the market is valuing AST like a spectrum owner. It is giving almost no credit to the satellite business itself.
Kraft also sees a catalyst that many investors have missed. On Oct. 1, AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile agreed to form a direct-to-device joint venture.
Around the same time, T-Mobile appears to have removed many references to Starlink from its website.
Kraft thinks T-Mobile is increasingly likely to switch from Starlink to AST.
What the Market Is Telling Us About AST SpaceMobile Stock
AST fell about 10% on Friday. AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile dropped 10% to 13%. SpaceX’s plan to buy 14 MHz of 800 MHz spectrum from Grain Management triggered the move.
Kraft called the move “misguided.” He argued that spectrum doesn’t make SpaceX a stronger partner for carriers.
AST also isn’t targeting direct-to-consumer customers, where SpaceX will mostly use the spectrum.
Deutsche Bank even argues the news helps AST.
The more SpaceX pushes into mobile, the more the big carriers may want a partner like AST.
So what is AST SpaceMobile stock actually worth?
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