Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev prediction, odds, pick for UFC 333

October 24, 2026 3 Min Read

Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev prediction, odds, pick for UFC 333 appeared first on ClutchPoints. Add ClutchPoints as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev opens the prelims with a fight between Grant Dawson and Nurullo Aliev in the lightweight division. Check out our UFC 333 odds series for our Dawson-Aliev prediction and pick.

Grant Dawson (24-3-1) submitted Mateusz Rebecki with a third-round rear-naked choke at UFC 328 on May 9. That win followed a first-round knockout loss to Manuel Torres at UFC 323 in December 2025, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Nurullo Aliev.

Nurullo Aliev (12-0) is 4-0 in the UFC. He beat Mike Davis by unanimous decision on July 25 at UFC Abu Dhabi, after a unanimous decision over Shaqueme Rock in November 2025. Ten of his twelve wins have come by decision, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Grant Dawson.

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UFC 333 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings

UFC 333 Odds: Grant Dawson-Nurullo Aliev Odds

Grant Dawson: -115

Nurullo Aliev: -105

Over 2.5 rounds: -245

Under 2.5 rounds: +185

Why Grant Dawson Will Win

Grant Dawson is 24-3-1 and has the more proven wrestling and submission game. His most recent win was a third-round rear-naked choke of Mateusz Rebecki.

He has fought better competition, and he has finishing ability that Aliev lacks. Aliev’s decision-heavy record raises questions about his ability to end fights.

Dawson is happy to grapple, and he said he would try to “lay” on Aliev just as much. That confidence in his own grappling is a real asset.

He is fighting with a motivation too: one fight left on his contract, and a chance to renegotiate with a win. That could sharpen his focus.

If Dawson wins the grappling exchanges and finds a submission, he can end the unbeaten run. Aliev’s wrestling is real, so Dawson must stay sharp.

Why Nurullo Aliev Will Win

Nurullo Aliev is 12-0, and he has already landed 14 takedowns in four UFC appearances. His technical wrestling and strength can overwhelm opponents.

Dawson has been knocked out abruptly before, most recently by Manuel Torres in December 2025. That vulnerability gives Aliev reason to mix in striking.

Dawson even admitted that “this guy can beat me if I’m not 100 percent there.” That is rare praise from a veteran who usually dominates on the ground.

Aliev has fought through an extended absence earlier in his UFC run, yet he keeps winning. His 10 decision wins show a fighter who can win rounds consistently.

If he controls the grappling exchanges for three rounds, the judges will reward him. Dawson’s submission threat means he has to be careful.

Final Grant Dawson-Nurullo Aliev Prediction & Pick

This lightweight bout is a toss-up, with Dawson at -115 and Aliev at -105 on DraftKings. Both men want to wrestle, so the fight may turn into a grappling chess match.

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Dawson has the submissions and the experience, but he can be knocked out. Aliev has the technical wrestling and an unbeaten record, but he has rarely finished fights.

Sherdog picks Aliev by decision, and that seems like the most likely outcome. Aliev’s control can beat Dawson’s chaos over three rounds.

I pick Aliev by decision, with Dawson’s submission threat as the upset path.

Final Grant Dawson-Nurullo Aliev Prediction & Pick: Nurullo Aliev (-105), OVER 2.5 Rounds (-245)