Welcome to The Playbook for Week 7, which kicks off Thursday night with a game between the Patriots and Bears.
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start advice, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
Additionally, we have folded our Shadow Reports into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best fantasy guidance each week.
All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense.
(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
NE-CHI | PIT-NO | SF-ATL | CLE-TEN | IND-MIN | MIA-NYJ | TB-CAR
CIN-BAL | NYG-HOU | DEN-ARI | GB-DET | LAR-LV | KC-SEA | DAL-PHI
Projected score: Bears 26, Patriots 24
Lineup locks: Drake Maye, D’Andre Swift, A.J. Brown, Luther Burden III
Fantasy Scoop: Welcome back, Colston Loveland! After totaling 24.0 fantasy points during his first five games of the season, Loveland put up 18.5 points on Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons. His big game coincided with the triumphant return of Caleb Williams, who completed 30 out of 36 passes in the win. Loveland now leads all tight ends in snaps and is fifth in end zone targets (four), though he’s way down in 21st place in receiving yards and has found the end zone just once.
Loveland’s strong performance is enough to get him back into the weekly TE1 mix, but we shouldn’t get too carried away, as he’s hit 12.0 fantasy points only once this season and he had a total of just 3 yards on five targets during Weeks 1-2 (Williams was under center for most of that). Consider Loveland to be a mid-to-back-end TE1 against a Patriots defense that has allowed only one tight end (Brock Bowers) to reach 8.0 fantasy points this season.
Shadow Alert: This is far from a lock, but it’s possible Christian Gonzalez shadows Rome Odunze, just like he has done for Garrett Wilson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and DK Metcalf this season. Odunze aligns on the perimeter 77% of the time, which makes him the most likely candidate to see a lot of Gonzalez, though it’s possible New England’s top corner aligns at times against Burden (50% perimeter).
Over/under: 49.8 (5th highest)
Win probability: Bears 57% (13th highest)
Projected score: Steelers 29, Saints 20
Lineup locks: Jaylen Warren, Chris Olave, DK Metcalf, Germie Bernard
Fantasy Scoop: Bernard has graduated to “lineup lock” status following a terrific Week 6 effort in which he caught 11 out of 12 targets for 87 yards and one touchdown. This, after the rookie second-round pick posted a 6-80-0 receiving line on nine targets the week prior. Bernard’s production is no fluke, as his route participation (85%) and target share (28%) have been outstanding during the span.
Bernard’s short-area role (4.9 aDOT) may limit his explosive plays and scoring upside, but the high volume supplies him with a high floor, especially in PPR formats. It also helps his cause that Pittsburgh is the league’s pass-heaviest team near the goal line (their 87% expected pass TD rate and 92% actual pass TD rate are both tops in the NFL). Consider Bernard to be a solid WR3 against a Saints defense that allowed 250 yards to New York Giants wide receivers last week.
Over/under: 49.7 (6th highest)
Win probability: Steelers 81% (3rd highest)
Projected score: 49ers 29, Falcons 22
Lineup locks: Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, Drake London, George Kittle
Fantasy Scoop: Right when it seemed like Kyle Pitts Sr. had fallen off the map (again), the most polarizing tight end in fantasy is back with a vengeance. After opening the 2026 season with a 2-20-0 receiving line on six targets through three games, Pitts improved to 3-47-0 on three targets in Week 4, 5-42-1 on six targets in Week 5 and 5-60-2 on seven targets in Week 6. Although Pitts’ route participation has been volatile this season, it has steadied over the past two weeks — and he also played on a season-high 76% of Atlanta’s snaps last Sunday.
Pitts’ usage isn’t quite as high as it was last season, but as long as his connection with Michael Penix Jr. remains strong, there’s enough here to get him back into the weekly TE1 discussion. Of course, we need to downgrade him here in Week 7, as the 49ers have allowed zero touchdowns and the fourth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season. Only Trey McBride and Chig Okonkwo have cleared 5.0 points against them.
Over/under: 50.7 (4th highest)
Win probability: 49ers 73% (4th highest)
Projected score: Browns 17, Titans 16
Lineup locks: Denzel Boston, Carnell Tate
Fantasy Scoop: With Quinshon Judkins sidelined in Week 5, Jaleel McLaughlin led the Cleveland backfield, playing on 37 snaps, carrying the ball nine times for 41 yards and adding 14 yards on four targets. Audric Estime (18 snaps) was also involved and, while he wasn’t targeted and was held to 19 yards on nine carries, he did score the team’s lone rushing touchdown.
If Judkins returns in Week 7, both McLaughlin and Estime should be on waivers. If Judkins remains out, neither replacement back will be a recommended flex against a solid Titans run defense, though McLaughlin’s passing-game work gives him a slight edge if you’re in a tough spot. Note that, should Dylan Sampson return from IR and Judkins remain out, it’s Sampson who would be the preferred (albeit still uninspiring) flex from this backfield.
Over/under: 32.6 (Lowest)
Win probability: Browns 55% (Lowest)
Projected score: Vikings 26, Colts 16
Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Justin Jefferson
Fantasy Scoop: Keenan Allen set season-high marks in targets (11), receptions (eight) and yardage (82) against the Titans on Sunday. Allen has now handled at least nine targets in all three games since Alec Pierce was placed on IR. The heavy usage has helped him to a respectable 14.7 fantasy points per game, which includes 16-plus points in two of the three outings.
Allen’s short-area role (7.9 aDOT) in the Colts’ struggling offense will limit his scoring opportunities (one end zone target this season), but the 25% target share he’s enjoyed over the last three games is plenty to keep him in the WR3/flex discussion, especially if Tyler Warren remains sidelined.
Of course, we need to downgrade this entire passing game in Week 7 against a Vikings defense that has allowed the third-fewest passing yards and only three passing TDs this season. Minnesota hasn’t allowed any wide receivers to clear 12.0 fantasy points in a game since Week 1.
Over/under: 41.9 (12th highest)
Win probability: Vikings 84% (Highest)
Projected score: Jets 24, Dolphins 14
Lineup locks: Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson
Fantasy Scoop: Omar Cooper Jr. returned from injury on Sunday and made a major impact. The first-round rookie played on 82% of offensive snaps and posted a 6-103-1 receiving line on seven targets. The big game was a surprise after Cooper missed Weeks 2-5 due to a high ankle sprain suffered on the fourth snap of his pro career back in Week 1. It was a positive sign that Cooper immediately leapfrogged Tim Patrick and Isaiah Williams on the depth chart, but it’s also notable that Adonai Mitchell was sidelined and Wilson was dealing with shadow coverage from Christian Gonzalez.
Cooper should be on rosters, but he should be considered for a flex spot only if Mitchell remains out this week. Target volume is likely to be at a premium against a struggling Miami team that has faced the fewest WR targets and thus allowed the third-fewest WR fantasy points this season. In five games, only three receivers have reached double-digit fantasy points against Miami — and none have reached 20.
Over/under: 38.6 (13th highest)
Win probability: Jets 82% (2nd highest)
Projected score: Panthers 24, Buccaneers 21
Lineup locks: Bucky Irving, Chuba Hubbard, Tetairoa McMillan, Jalen Coker, Emeka Egbuka
Fantasy Scoop: After producing 52 yards and one touchdown on seven touches in Week 5, Egbuka followed that up with 48 yards and one touchdown on seven touches in Week 6. Egbuka’s fantasy point totals in the two games (17.2 and 17.8) are a significant step forward after he had failed to reach 12.0 points in any of his prior 12 games.
Egbuka’s target volume has been very good — a 26% share on the season that includes a career-high 16 targets against Pittsburgh on Sunday. Of course, that heavy usage came with Jalon Daniels under center, and Baker Mayfield may return in Week 7. In his three games with Mayfield this season, Egbuka averaged 6.7 targets and 10.9 fantasy PPG.
The Panthers have been solid against receivers this season, though both starting corners remain sidelined and DeVonta Smith just nailed them for 7-75-1 on Sunday. Regardless of which QB is under center, Egbuka has found his way back into the WR2/3 mix.
Over/under: 44.7 (10th highest)
Win probability: Panthers 60% (8th highest)
Projected score: Bengals 24, Ravens 22
Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, Derrick Henry, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Zay Flowers, Tee Higgins
Shadow Report: DJ Turner is a strong bet to shadow Flowers when he aligns on the perimeter, which he has done on 45% of his routes this season. Turner has emerged as one of the league’s top shadow corners, having already traveled with Emeka Egbuka (11.3 fantasy points in the game), Xavier Hutchinson (6.7), DK Metcalf (12.1), Parker Washington (2.0) and Chris Bell (2.6) this season.
Turner also shadowed 14 times last season (those receivers averaged 8.8 fantasy PPG), two of which came against Flowers. Flowers was held to a 2-6-0 receiving line on seven targets in the Week 13 matchup, but was better with a 3-68-1 line on five targets in Week 15. Flowers will avoid Turner on roughly half of his routes, but note that the Bengals have allowed a 56% completion rate to receivers (fourth lowest) and none have cleared 15.0 points in a game. Flowers remains a lineup lock, but a down game wouldn’t be a shock.
Over/under: 45.9 (9th highest)
Win probability: Bengals 57% (12th highest)
Projected score: Texans 30, Giants 24
Lineup locks: C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins, Malik Nabers, Isaiah Likely
Fantasy Scoop: Jaylin Noel caught all four targets for a career-high 107 yards and one touchdown against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 6. Despite the strong game (and despite the fact that he also found the end zone in Week 5), Noel is not yet a viable flex option. The 2025 third-round pick remains a situational player, having yet to eclipse 60% route participation or a 16% target share in any single game of his career.
Noel is trending toward locking down Houston’s primary slot receiver job, but that’s unlikely to lead to consistent production with so many mouths to feed at wide receiver in that huddle. That list includes Marvin Harrison Jr. (four targets on 11 snaps in his Houston debut), whose role will continue to expand, as well as a now-healthy Tank Dell. At best, Noel is a speculative bench stash, but there’s not much upside in the short term.
Over/under: 54.4 (3rd highest)
Win probability: Texans 71% (5th highest)
Projected score: Broncos 24, Cardinals 21
Lineup locks: Michael Wilson, Trey McBride
Fantasy Scoop: Wilson is a tricky evaluation after a very volatile start to the season. Arizona’s top receiver appeared to be primed for a huge season after posting 11-89-1 and 7-95-0 receiving lines on a combined 30 targets during Weeks 3-4. However, he’s seen exactly seven targets in his other four games, none of which resulted in more than 10.6 fantasy points. That includes a pair of duds since Harrison’s departure, a 4-30-0 showing in an elite matchup against Detroit in Week 5 and a 4-32-0 line against the Trent McDuffie-less Rams last week.
Although the production has been inconsistent, Wilson checks a lot of boxes, including ranking no lower than eighth among receivers in snaps, routes, target share, targets, end zone targets and air yards. As long as that keeps up, he’ll find his way to plenty of big games. Wilson is a WR3 against Denver, though you should note that he’ll be a candidate for shadow coverage from Pat Surtain II if the standout corner returns from injury.
Over/under: 44.7 (11th highest)
Win probability: Broncos 61% (7th highest)
Projected score: Lions 30, Packers 28
Lineup locks: Jordan Love, Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Christian Watson, Matthew Golden, Sam LaPorta, Tucker Kraft
Fantasy Scoop: When we last saw the Lions in action (Week 5), Jameson Williams scored his only two touchdowns of the season during a 45-21 win over Arizona. It was Williams’ second-consecutive game with 16-plus fantasy points after he fell short of 9.0 points in each of his first three games of the season. The good news is that Williams’ playing time has been excellent (89% route participation), but the concern is that his targets have been extremely volatile. He’s reached eight targets twice but has seen exactly four targets in the other three games (including the two-TD outing).
Williams’ 15.4% target share is his lowest since 2023 and will need to increase in order to allow consistent fantasy production. The speedy receiver should be viewed as a WR3 this week against a Green Bay defense that sits middle of the pack in WR fantasy points allowed.
Over/under: 58.2 (Highest)
Win probability: Lions 60% (9th highest)
Projected score: Rams 29, Raiders 26
Lineup locks: Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Ashton Jeanty, Puka Nacua, Brock Bowers
Fantasy Scoop: Davante Adams (hamstring) is expected to miss 6-10 weeks of action, which will free up roughly 20% of the Rams’ targets and, perhaps more notably, a large chunk of the team’s opportunities near the goal line as Adams has scored four touchdowns and is responsible for five of the team’s nine end zone targets this season. Adams’ absence figures to lead to even more reliance on Nacua, but it’s possible the rest of usage is spread around to the team’s depth receivers and tight ends.
Konata Mumpfield is the next man up at receiver, but he managed only one good game while filling in for Adams during Weeks 16-18 last season (a 14-5-50-0 receiving line) and for Nacua during Weeks 2-3 this season (1-12-0 in Week 2, but 4-93-1 in Week 3). At best, Mumpfield is a speculative bench stash this weekend. TE duo Colby Parkinson and Tyler Higbee are now better bets to find the end zone, but the two share so much work that they don’t make for viable fantasy starters either. Instead, keep Terrance Ferguson stashed on IR, as he could find his way into the TE1 mix if he’s able to return in the near future.
Over/under: 55.3 (2nd highest)
Win probability: Rams 59% (10th highest)
Projected score: Chiefs 25, Seahawks 22
Lineup locks: Kenneth Walker III, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Xavier Worthy
Fantasy Scoop: After opening the season with 21.7 and 29.0 fantasy point efforts, Patrick Mahomes has faded to 15.9, 17.0 and 10.5 during his last three outings. Mahomes continues to play well, but the game script hasn’t allowed much passing (no more than 30 passing attempts in four out of five games) and he hasn’t added much with his legs (after posting a 7-23-1 rushing line in Week 1, he’s totaled a 10-34-0 line over his last four games).
With Walker playing at an elite level, Kansas City has run a balanced offense (Andy Reid generally leans very pass-heavy) and has run the ball often near the goal line (56% of Chiefs touchdowns have been passes this year, compared to 69% during the prior Mahomes era). This week, Mahomes will face off with a Seattle defense that has allowed the fewest passing yards, lowest YPA (5.3) and second-fewest QB fantasy points this season. Seattle has held four of their opposing six QBs below 10.0 fantasy points.
Mahomes is a fringe fantasy starter most weeks but should absolutely be on benches against Seattle’s elite defense.
Over/under: 47.2 (8th highest)
Win probability: Chiefs 58% (11th highest)
Projected score: Cowboys 26, Eagles 21
Lineup locks: Javonte Williams, Saquon Barkley, CeeDee Lamb, DeVonta Smith, George Pickens
Fantasy Scoop: Tanner McKee made his first start in place of Jalen Hurts (IR) last week and it certainly could have gone worse from a fantasy perspective. The 2023 sixth-round pick was inefficient (4.8 YPA, 58.0 C%) but attempted 45 passes, which allowed a strong fantasy showing from Smith (7-75-1 on 14 targets) and a solid outing from Dallas Goedert (6-61-0 on eight targets).
McKee was competent enough that we can feel secure with keeping Smith as a lineup lock against a Dallas defense that has allowed the third-highest EPA against the pass, as well as the seventh-most fantasy points to receivers. Goedert, meanwhile, has managed 12 catches on 17 targets over the two games since his return from injury and remains a back-end TE1.
Over/under: 47.2 (7th highest)
Win probability: Cowboys 65% (6th highest)
