Column: The Wizards are changing almost everything. How much will it change their fortunes? – WTOP News

The Washington Wizards, an NBA franchise that’s spent nearly a half-century searching for a winning identity, got a much-needed makeover in the last year.

Trae Young and Anthony Davis bring established star power to a team that hasn’t had much of it lately. No. 1 overall pick AJ Dybantsa brings the promise of a franchise cornerstone, joining a young nucleus that includes Alex Sarr, Kyshawn George and Tre Johnson.

Other changes are on the horizon. Capital One Arena is undergoing a major renovation, with new suites and other interior upgrades already taking shape and changes designed to help fans move more quickly from the street to their seats. Monumental Sports and Entertainment is also exploring a refreshed visual identity for the Wizards, with new primary uniforms potentially arriving for the 2027-28 season.

After three consecutive seasons with fewer than 20 wins — including a league-worst 17-65 campaign last year — Wizards fans finally have something to anticipate besides the NBA draft lottery.

But how much of that promise can realistically translate into winning basketball?

WTOP spoke with Josh Robbins, who covers the Wizards for The Athletic, about what to expect as Washington opens its season Wednesday night against the Milwaukee Bucks. And while the Wizards have more talent and more reasons for optimism than they’ve had in years, Robbins offered a reminder that assembling an intriguing roster and producing a winning team are two different accomplishments.

New stars, new expectations

The arrival of Young and Davis creates an interesting dynamic. Both veterans are at stages of their careers where winning matters more than development. Meanwhile, Dybantsa and Washington’s other young players are still establishing themselves.

But Robbins doesn’t necessarily see those competing timelines as a problem.

“At some point, you can’t continue to be bad without accruing significant long-term damage to a player,” Robbins told WTOP. “And now’s the time for the Wizards to try to win, or at least try to learn to win. And so, in that sense, Trae Young and Anthony Davis are bridge players.”

Young’s ability to create opportunities for his teammates could make life considerably easier for Washington’s young scorers. Davis, a 10-time All-Star and former NBA champion, provides a veteran presence and defensive capabilities the Wizards have sorely lacked.

Dybantsa, meanwhile, won’t have to carry the offensive burden typically placed on a No. 1 overall pick joining a rebuilding franchise.

There is a trade-off. Fewer possessions running through the rookie could mean fewer opportunities to develop his individual offensive game.

But Robbins believes learning to play meaningful basketball alongside established veterans will ultimately benefit Dybantsa.

“I don’t think you do young players favors by just gifting them minutes and not caring whether they win or lose,” he said.

There’s also a larger question hanging over Washington’s prized rookie: How much does landing a franchise player actually guarantee?

A recent analysis by The Athletic found that of the 150 players selected in the top five of the NBA draft between 1996 and 2025, only 21 — just 14% — reached the NBA Finals with the team that selected or acquired them on draft night.

Robbins cautioned against reading too much into that number.

“So much of it depends on the situation you go to,” he said, pointing to Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum joining an already competitive Boston Celtics organization in 2016 and 2017, respectively.

That’s not to say drafting a superstar doesn’t matter. It’s more so that identifying the right player is only part of the equation — developing him and building the right team around him are challenges of their own.

Unfortunately, Washington’s most anticipated newcomer won’t be available for opening night. Dybantsa has been ruled out against Milwaukee and is considered day-to-day with a mild left ankle sprain suffered in Friday’s preseason finale.  

How good can they actually be?

The Wizards should be considerably more competitive than the team that won just 17 games last season. But there’s a substantial difference between doubling that total and becoming a playoff contender.

Robbins isn’t convinced Washington is ready for the latter.

“I don’t think that the franchise expects to win 40-plus games,” he said, noting that even reaching 34 victories would require doubling last season’s win total.

And while Washington has added substantial size and defensive talent, don’t bet on an overnight turnaround from a unit that posted the highest single-season defensive rating on record, allowing 122.7 points per 100 possessions last season.

Davis is an elite defender when healthy (a huge caveat given his injury history is longer than his 7-foot-6 wingspan can reach), and Deandre Ayton should strengthen the team’s rebounding. But Young has a well-earned reputation for being a defensive liability, and the returning players have spent their NBA careers on one of the league’s weakest defensive teams.

“I’m skeptical that they can get into the top 15 this year,” Robbins said. “They’re welcome to prove me wrong.”

There are questions about the rotation, too. Robbins identified Bub Carrington, who appeared in every Wizards game over the past two seasons, as a player whose minutes could diminish with Young taking over at point guard and George assuming more ball-handling responsibilities.

The Wizards have accumulated enough talent that playing time is no longer guaranteed simply because a young player needs experience.

That’s progress. But it also creates decisions head coach Brian Keefe hasn’t previously had to make.

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A new challenge for the coach

Keefe has spent most of his tenure coaching a franchise that prioritized player development and draft position over victories.

Now the expectations are changing.

“For two and a half years now, he’s been the captain essentially of a tanking team,” Robbins said. “And now that they are attempting to do a 180-degree turn, do the players who had been there see him as a viable coach?”

It’s a fascinating question for the man voted earlier this year as the NBA’s least impressive coach.

The players may respect Keefe and appreciate his role in their development. But leading a young team through a rebuilding process isn’t necessarily the same as managing a competitive roster featuring established stars, changing roles and increased accountability.

Keefe must demonstrate that he can do both. And the team’s improvement won’t necessarily be measured by victories alone.

Robbins believes the development of Dybantsa and the other young players remains essential, regardless of how many games Washington wins.

If that development stalls, even a surprising run toward the postseason could obscure more significant long-term problems.

A fresh look — but a new era?

The Wizards, in a move that appeals to the sports fashionista in me, are also contemplating changes beyond the basketball court.

Robbins recently detailed Monumental’s interest in refreshing the team’s uniforms and potentially other elements of its visual identity as the renovations to Capital One Arena approach completion.

The Wizards name isn’t going anywhere, and a primary logo overhaul appears to be a longer-term possibility.

But could a new look help reconnect a franchise with a fan base that has endured decades of disappointment?

A successful rebrand, Robbins said, could be a “force multiplier” — particularly if Washington’s on-court improvement coincides with the makeover.

But he also made clear that no amount of marketing can manufacture the kind of connection that comes from sustained success.

“In terms of a durable, sustained connection, that is earned through winning and sustained winning,” Robbins said.

That’s ultimately the challenge facing this organization.

The Wizards have changed their personnel and their expectations, with a new visual identity potentially on the way. They’ve acquired enough talent to make optimism reasonable again.

But Young and Davis must stay healthy and productive. Keefe must prove he has the coaching chops to lead a team actually trying to win. And Dybantsa must develop into the cornerstone Washington believes it drafted.

A playoff appearance would be a tremendous leap forward for a franchise that’s spent three years in the NBA’s basement, largely out of sight and out of mind. But it wouldn’t necessarily prove that the Wizards have built something sustainable.

For now, as justified as the excitement may be, the expectations deserve a little more restraint.

Because after decades of false starts, Washington doesn’t need another makeover that looks good on opening night.

It needs one that still looks good in April.

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