Northern Illinois vs Wyoming Prediction, Pick, NCAAF Odds for Saturday, Oct. 17 – USFTB

Northern Illinois was bound to have a tough first season under head coach Rob Harley with a dire quarterback situation and limited defensive personnel. The team has been noncompetitive against FBS competition with an inconsistent run game, and the quarterback play has not been good enough to keep NIU on schedule.

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The defense has really struggled while surrendering no less than 28 points at any point this season, and the stop unit is allowing 63% successful third down conversions, worst in the country by a wide margin. Off a bye week and catching Air Force in a great spot at home last week, there were thoughts NIU could rise up and give the Flyboys a feisty game, and it was anything but that. Now a road trip to Wyoming awaits.

Quarterback Taron Dickens tore up the Southern Conference of the FCS last season, and there was room for optimism that the Huskies could have more punch offensively after his arrival in De Kalb, IL this summer. Dickens has thrown for 977 yards this season but has topped 300 yards only once this year, and he has just three touchdown passes this season.

Telly Johnson leads the ground attack with 300 yards and a trio of rushing scores, but there is absolutely zero explosiveness, and NIU is averaging just 2.9 yards per carry on the ground this season.

Sacks and negative plays behind the line of scrimmage have been such a problem for this offense, which cannot stack successful plays together with regularity. Situational red zone execution has also been woeful as NIU has just five scores in 13 red zone attempts, being turned away with no points on eight occasions.

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The defense has limited depth, talent, and toughness. NIU struggles to stop the run, and the pass coverage unit only performed well against Air Force, who didn’t complete a pass but rushed for 439 yards, as they routinely do. NIU has not allowed less than six yards per play against any FBS opponent this season and will now be tasked with taking on a revamped Wyoming team on the road, at 7,000 feet of elevation. Tough task if you ask me.

Wyoming finally showed some zest offensively last week against San Jose State as the passing offense was more dynamic, the Pokes operated with some pace, and the ground game was effective. All four of Wyoming’s first-half offensive drives ended in the red zone, but only six points were scored. The way the team operated in between the 20s looked vastly improved.

The Pokes are still a run-heavy team, and we saw a much more dynamic run look with quarterback Tyler Hughes rushing for 92 yards, and I would expect him to be more involved with his legs going forward. Samuel Harris and Markell Holman continue to be consistent, and this group should have success on the ground against Northern Illinois this week.

The lack of playmaking receivers still exists, so the tight ends and running backs receive the bulk of the target share, limiting the explosive capabilities of the Wyoming offense, and that will also continue through the remainder of this season.

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The Wyoming defense is not outstanding at anything, but they are pretty good at about everything. The rushing metrics look bad because the Wyoming front took a pounding on the road at CMU and NDSU, two run-heavy operations. It hasn’t been too bad outside of that.

The secondary has lined up against three pass-happy offenses in SJSU, Hawaii, and Colorado State, but the performances weren’t too bad. The Pokes allow some level of success through the air and on the ground, but Wyoming keeps the explosives surrendered to a minimum, and the red zone defense has been excellent over the last five weeks.

This line opened with Wyoming listed as a 7-point favorite, and money has come in early this week, pushing this line out to -8.5 before settling at -7.5. The total has come down from 40.5 to 39.5, where it currently sits. I like Wyoming in this game, and I laid the number early in the week.

Wyoming ran 77 plays last week, and we saw a much more versatile attack. Hughes ran the ball well, and the offense looked like a unit that had a plan and knew exactly what it was trying to accomplish. I love what I saw in the first half with Wyoming getting into the red zone, and I expect the execution in the red zone to be more on point this week than we have seen all season.

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NIU just lined up against Air Force and had to endure that physical run game, where the stop unit surrendered 439 rushing yards. Now, NIU has to regroup and get ready to play at 7,000 feet of elevation, something this team is not used to doing. I would imagine given the scheduling circumstances, this front gets gassed early in this game.

In the late stages of the second half, with Wyoming getting the ground attack cranking, expect very little resistance from the NIU defensive front and for Wyoming to move the ball on the ground consistently. This will look like a very deflated NIU defensive front in the second half. Remember, this unit allows 63% of third down attempts to be converted successfully.

I cannot trust the NIU offense to register explosive, chunk plays here. Wyoming ranks seventh nationally in preventing explosive plays, and NIU is obtaining chunk plays less than 5% of the time. The offensive line allows far too much activity in the backfield, and Dickens will be under constant duress on the road in this matchup.

Situational execution and the performance in the red zone have been woeful this season, and I cannot foresee NIU keeping pace with Wyoming, who could threaten to score 30 points or more in this one. Lay the number with the Pokes!

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Pick: Wyoming -7.5 (-114)