The Buffalo Bills head to Los Angeles for a Monday night clash with the Rams, and the betting lines suggest a high-scoring, fast-paced game. The Rams are sitting as 3-point favorites with a total set at 54.5, and honestly, that total feels a bit too low.
The Rams have too much talent on offense for their low scoring average. Puka Nacua works the middle, Davante Adams attacks the outside, and Kyren Williams has turned into a major receiving threat out of the backfield. Buffalo’s defense struggles to contain running backs in the pass game, which sets up perfectly for Williams. On the other side, the Bills need James Cook to get going. The Rams’ pass defense is tough, allowing only 4.8 yards per attempt, so Josh Allen needs a solid ground game to keep defenses honest. If DJ Moore sits, Keon Coleman has to step up and give Allen a target outside.
Looking at the big picture, the Rams move the ball really well but have killed themselves with turnovers. Matthew Stafford already has six interceptions, and the team has turned it over multiple times in four straight games. If they clean that up against a Bills defense that gives up too many points per play, they should score plenty. But turnovers create short fields, which could easily push this game over the total. I like the OVER 54.5 points here. Both teams play fast, and Allen throws a ton, especially as an underdog.
For player props, Matthew Stafford’s rushing yards line of 2.5 is way too low. He isn’t a runner, but he’s had over 10 yards in his last two games, and the Bills love giving up rushing yards to quarterbacks. Kyren Williams is a beast and has gone over 80 yards in three straight games; the Bills allow 116 rushing yards per game, so his line of 68.5 is a solid play. Finally, look at Davante Adams to go over 70 receiving yards. He gets loose when Nacua draws coverage, and the Bills secondary is generous to wide receivers.
